Litecoin has outperformed Bitcoin over the last 5 months. Litecoin is up 120% over Bitcoin, demonstrating a reversal V bottom pattern. With each passing day it is becoming more and more likely that June 13th, 2022 was the bottom for Litecoin against Bitcoin.
Litecoin also appears to have bottomed against the dollar with an inverted head and shoulders bottom pattern / adam and eve double bottom. Litecoin is up 55% against the dollar since June 14th, 2022 (the bottom against the dollar occurred one day later than against bitcoin).
Next, zooming out paints a better picture of where litecoin can go in the next bull run cycle against Bitcoin. This chart shows the network growth compared to bitcoin in blue on the LTCBTC chart. A rising trend shows Litecoin has been growing at a faster rate than Bitcoin since 2021.
It clearly shows a previous correlation and now divergence between network usage and Litecoin's current price.
Another way to model Litecoin's potential value is to further compare Litecoin's network growth against Bitcoin's. The following chart shows Litecoin's current network value models and forecasts the future price of litecoin between $599 - $1712 at today's current Bitcoin price. This model will increase or decrease depending on Bitcoin's price and Litecoin's network usage compared to Bitcoin's.
We can use a similar valuation to Metcalf's law by evaluating Litecoin's daily volume transfer in dollars x its active addresses compared to its current market cap. This chart shows a strong correlation in 2016 and 2020. Is it reasonable to expect a strong correlation in the next year? If so it would be Litecoin's market cap close to Bitcoin's.
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