Intro
Litecoin is not dead. The fear that you feel seeing the title "Litecoin is dead" that caused you to click this article is real though. Bitcoin has been declared dead so many times now that websites have been created to document the many times Bitcoin has been declared dead. Here is an example case in point. (https://www.bitcoinisdead.org/) Litecoin is having a "Litecoin is Dead" moment right now as evidenced by Litecoin's biggest upgrade of MWEB largely ignored by speculators. The truth is that we are in a Bitcoin Bear market and I am here to offer encouragement, advice (not financial), and a roadmap out of the bear market at a timely moment. I have been into crypto since my first purchase of Bitcoin in the summer of 2013, I have experienced three Bull markets, which is my third Bear market. What I see in the next Bull market for Litecoin is a face-melting, terrifying high price for Litecoin that is simply unbelievable and I have the data to prove it here in this article. Litecoin is not dead, but Litecoin is having a "Litecoin is dead" moment. So let's begin.
Market Cycles
Before I begin with my promise, I have to make sure we are on the same page. Most know about Bull markets and Bear markets but that doesn't make a complete cycle. Few know that there are 4 parts to a market cycle: Markup (Bull), Dispersion, Downtrend (Bear), and Accumulation. Price acts differently in each phase of the markets and arguments can be made at any time regarding which part of the cycle we are in. I stated previously that I believe we are still in a Bear market. The cycle low can occur in a Bear market but generally occurs in the next phase, the Accumulation phase. The most important point that I want to make in this section is that Bears are in full control in the Bear Market.
Litecoin's price struggle is real
Let's talk about how speculators act in a Bear market and how Litecoin is performing against two other fundamentally sound Proof of Work coins, Bitcoin and ZCash. Here's a visual to help you see it. I updated the "Wall St. Cheat Sheet" with the four parts I previously mentioned. I also have a current chart of Bitcoin color-coded with my best guess of which part of the cycle price action was/is in recently.
Using Bitcoin as a reference as the keystone of the crypto market, I believe that Bitcoin bulls are in the complacency stage and about to move into the anxiety stage of market psychology. Let's take a look at Bitcoin's speculators:
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Bitcoin longs are at all-time highs right now and shorts are climbing. Longs outnumber the shorts by 33.7 times more. Clearly, longs are thinking to themselves, "We just need to cool off for the next rally." (Look at the cheat sheet) Bitcoin price has a long way to go. Is @CryptoSavy1 correct? Now let's take a look at ZCash speculators:
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I choose ZCash because like Litecoin it also failed to make a new all-time high — although it is less popular and has a much smaller community (So fewer "permabulls" than Bitcoin or Litecoin). As you can see, ZCash longs have been losing interest since the Bitcoin Bull market whereas shorts have stayed pretty much in a range. Unlike Bitcoin, ZCash longs are very anxious and the big recent drop indicates panic. ZCash longs outnumber shorts by 7.8 times more. Clearly, ZCash longs are saying, "$hit! Everyone is selling. I need to get out!" (Look at the cheat sheet) Now let's look at Litecoin speculators:
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Like ZCash, Litecoin longs are trending down even in the Bitcoin Bull market. What's unique to Litecoin is that shorts are trending up in the Bitcoin Bull market which is likely the reason Litecoin failed to make a new all-time high (But just barely). Litecoin also had a big drop in longs at the same time as ZCash but it doesn't look as panicky. Right now Litecoin SHORTS outnumber the longs by 9.3%. Clearly, Litecoin longs are in capitulation. Reading this now, I'm pretty sure you moved to "Angry" and saying to yourself, "Who shorted the market??". (Look at the cheat sheet)
I believe the data I just presented clearly shows that we are in a definitive bear market but each coin is in a different psychological stage within this Bitcoin Bear market. Bitcoin is clearly just beginning its bear market whereas Litecoin is about to enter the Accumulation phase. Bitcoin's price probably has a very long way to go, whereas there's a good chance Litecoin only has one more leg down. With the realization that we are just in the beginning of a Bitcoin Bear market, Litecoin longs will still have to go through the depression stage before the next bull market. I'm calling a low wick down of $40 with a range of $45. I think we all need to take a good long look at @CryptoSavy1's chart for Bitcoin though then look at the Cheat Sheet again:
Roadmap to a Litecoin face-melting bull market
If Litecoin's market cycle is ahead of Bitcoin's market cycle then Litecoin will lead the way out into the Bull Market, right? That was a theory I worked on the last cycle based on the previous cycle. Here's a chart comparing Litecoin's performance in the first part of 2015.
So in December 2018, I bought the low of Litecoin at $22.50 on Coinbase (the cycle low was $22.17). From then on for the first part of 2019, Litecoin outperformed Bitcoin. During this time LeadingTrader, Alessio Rastani, called Litecoin a "leading indicator".
So why didn't Litecoin make a new all-time high? Litecoin longs only grew to 21.96 times more than Litecoin shorts. Remember, Bitcoin longs currently outnumber the shorts by 33.7 times more, and that grew as high as 58.1 times. Litecoin longs just didn't have the enthusiasm to push Litecoin to new all-time highs like the Bitcoin longs had pushed Bitcoin.
I want you to notice that I've been calling the Bull and Bear markets in this article "Bitcoin bull" and "Bitcoin bear" markets. I've compared Litecoin and ZCash to stages in Bitcoin's cycle. Why is Litecoin ahead of Bitcoin psychologically? Litecoin has been in a bear market against Bitcoin since, well as far back as Bitstamp shows, the first exchange to list Litecoin.
If you go back to the Wall St. Cheatsheet, what part of the cycle does this look most closely? If you see "Depression", so do I. I chose my words very carefully at the beginning of this article when I said, "What I see in the next Bull market for Litecoin is a face-melting, terrifying high price for Litecoin that is simply unbelievable". Because the next stage for Litecoin is, "Disbelief".
Litecoin is DEAD
If you made it this far in an article with a clickbait title, then you're should be realizing now that Litecoin is not dead but IS having a "Litecoin is dead" moment. Who knows when Litecoin will have its bull market against Bitcoin? If Litecoin is ending its depression stage then we'll probably see Litecoin not only make a low of not much more than $40 in the next year (I'll be looking for it this October 2022), then climb to $1000 by summer 2023. (And be called a "Sucker's Rally"((Go look at the cheat sheet)) Now you should see why this article is timely, it is time for Litecoin bulls to become bold. I know it's unbelievable but I see Litecoin's potential price of well over $10,000 by the end of the next Bitcoin Bull market.
Every successful chartist knows that technical analysis can only show you possibilities and their job is to determine probabilities. Every successful chartist also knows that sometimes even the most probable isn't what actually happens. But there is one thing that old and successful chartists know, and that is every cycle has an unbelievable phase at its end, that is a certainty. The fact that I'm making that price prediction by applying everything in this article should at least convince you that the unbelievable is very probable at this stage in Litecoin's cycle. Isn't it time you "Looked into Litecoin?"
Follow me on Twitter: The Litecoin Eagle @EagleESBD
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